I hope everyone is safe after the Nightmare at Neyland. Thoughts and prayers to all the victims. In all seriousness though, what happened at the end of the game wasn't good. It overshadowed the terrible officiating and Lane Kiffin making a mockery of the sport with his players flopping every other play. The overreaction of the national media would lead you to think that dozens were killed in the mayhem. And of course these lazy wastes of flesh paint all Tennessee fans with a broad brush. While I think what happened with our fans was unnecessary, the histrionic pearl clutching was over the top. I have to defend my people when they are being unfairly persecuted by a bunch of no talent lazy losers. Enough about that.
Tennessee made a lot of mistakes in the Ole Miss game, particularly in the first half. In the second half, the Vols mounted a comeback and held Ole Miss to 7 points. Even with all the mistakes and having several guys out with injury, Tennessee still had a chance to win the game in the last seconds. Unfortunately Hendon Hooker went down with an injury. I think Tennessee wins if he doesn't get hurt. Joe Milton came in for a couple of plays and after just missing Cedric Tillman in the end zone, he inexplicably ran out of bounds as time expired. I think that was a product of instinct overriding cognition. You could see him look at the clock and shake his head as he ran out of bounds. I feel bad for the guy. He knew he made a mistake in the moment. But at the same time, he has done nothing to give you confidence that he can run Heupel's offense effectively.
I have been wrong a few times with trying to figure out who the quarterback will be earlier in the season under Heupel. He likes to play games and keep people guessing and that's his right. I'm going to trust Tony's reporting that Hooker had a hamstring and a bad knee bruise and assume that Milton will be starting at Alabama. Before I get into the game though, as usual I want to add some historical perspective.
Alabama has always been, and will always be Tennessee's main rival in my opinion. I know people like to say it isn't a rivalry anymore because Tennessee hasn't won in 14 years. I think they are confusing the word competitive with rivalry. I've interacted with quite a few Alabama fans over the years, both in person and on the internet. Sure, a lot of the young Alabama fans don't see Tennessee as much of anything except the team they beat from the East every year. But when you get to the fans probably from 25 and up, they still very much hate Tennessee and consider them a rival. If you polled these fans, probably 60% of them would say Auburn is their main rival and 40% would say Tennessee. You have to keep in mind, Alabama's fan base by and large looks at college football through a historical prism. That tends to happen when you are the best program in history. Most fans of the historic blue bloods are the same way. From Notre Dame to Texas to Oklahoma to Nebraska to Penn State to USC(to the extent that they have fans) to Michigan to Ohio State to Tennessee. All of these fan bases have an appreciation for the history of the game. Younger fans probably don't relate to this as much because history just isn't valued as much as it should be anymore.
The point is, most Alabama fans look at the rivalry though a historical lens. They also hold grudges. To this day they still despise Phil Fulmer for turning them in. Even beyond that, they remember Tennessee winning 11 of 13. That wasn't all that long ago. They remember Johnny Majors winning Bear Bryant's final Third Saturday in October. They've heard about how great the rivalry was in the late 60's when the series record was dead even. Then of course a different Gump nuked the program in the 70's. A hole that took Johnny Majors several years to dig out of. Anyway, I'm a guy that also looks at college football through a historic lens. Alabama and Tennessee have historically been the two best programs in the SEC. It's only fitting that the two best programs historically that share a border would be natural rivals. I realize Tennessee has taken 13 years off from being relevant in college football. But it looks like Heupel may be putting an end to that. Fingers crossed. It wasn't that long ago that Alabama took about a decade off. A little further back than that, Oklahoma took about 13 years off. Nebraska, Texas and USC are taking time off right now. They all eventually come back because their fans care too much. And aside from the Bammers that murder people after losses, our fans may care the most.
One more thing about the Alabama rivalry. It has always been streaky. Before their dominant streak they are on right now, Tennessee won 11 of 13. Before that, Alabama won 8 of 9. Before that, Tennessee won 4 straight. Before that, Alabama won 11 in a row. Before that, the Vols won 4 in a row. Before that, Bama won 5 of 6. Before that, Tennessee had a run of 9-1-3. It's been this way for a long time. It's hard to fathom right now, but once Saban leaves, Tennessee will probably start a streak of its own. Alabama is the undisputed top program in college football history. No one has beaten them more times than Tennessee. Tennessee beat Alabama 7 straight games from 1995-2001. That is Alabama's longest losing streak to a team. I started watching Tennessee football in 1990. My first memory of it was listening to the radio during the Alabama game that year. The way that game ended is so Tennessee it hurts by the way. Watch it on YouTube if you are a little masochistic. That was Tennessee's 5th loss in a row to them. Tennessee tied them in 1993 and was later awarded the win because Alabama was in trouble for cheating. It wasn't until 1995 that I got to see Tennessee actually beat Alabama on the field. To this day, that game is more or less tied with the national championship game for my happiest memory as a Vol fan.
It's really unfortunate that Hendon Hooker got hurt. If Tennessee was fully healthy, I think they could hang with Alabama this year. Alabama has a pretty good defense, but it isn't the smothering defense that it used to be. Tennessee is just so banged up and what Heupel has done with a thin roster to this point has been almost miraculous. Alabama has a great offense, but as we've seen against Ole Miss, Tennessee's defense can give the offense a chance to win against great offenses.
I'm assuming Milton will start. I could be wrong of course but this seems like the most likely scenario. Tennessee will have to be able to run the ball very well to stay in it. We all know about Milton's struggles as a passer. Alabama is only giving up 93 yards per game on the ground so this seems unlikely. I do think Heupel will scheme some points and they will probably run enough plays that Milton will hit a few passes to keep it somewhat balanced. It sounds like Tiyon Evans will be back so that helps a lot.
The defense has been fairly solid all year considering what they have to work with. I think they will try to keep Tennessee in the game as much as they can but Bryce Young and that Alabama offense will get theirs.
Tennessee's only chance is to match Alabama score for score and unfortunately I don't think they can do that without Hendon Hooker.
Alabama 38
Tennessee(+24.5) 24
In other games...
Pitt(-3.5) 28
Clemson 17
UCLA(-1.5) 31
Oregon 27
Notre Dame(-6.5) 34
USC 24
Ole Miss 42
LSU(+9.5) 39
Last Week 2-4(1-5 ATS) Overall Record 27-19(26-20 ATS)
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That's all I have for this week. As always, I appreciate everyone that takes the time to read this. Cherish every game, especially the Third(4th) Saturday In October. You never know. Tennessee might shock the world. After Saturday, there are only 4 games left in the regular season. It goes way too fast.
Have a great weekend everyone. Stay safe out there. Go Vols and God Bless!