Alabama Game Preview

The Third Saturday In October

There's an old saying. "Things are never as good as they seem and they are never as bad as they seem."

Tennessee was dominant in its first four games. For a while it was looking like the Vols were one of the best teams in the SEC. Of course things weren't that good. We all got brought down to Earth in Fayetteville. Naturally people started to panic. The perception wasn't really helped by an ugly win over Florida where the offense struggled for the second straight game. Now people are ready to give up on Nico and proclaim him a bust.

I'm here to tell you that things aren't as bad as they seem.

It's true. Tennessee's offense has struggled to adjust to how defenses have been playing them lately. But to me, it looks like the offense is just a bit off. If the offensive line can hold their blocks just a little longer. If Nico can plant his feet and get the ball out just a little sooner. The difference between what we've seen the past few weeks and a typical Heupel offense is slim. It's really just a matter of getting everyone synced up. I know the offensive tackles, particularly Lance Heard, have been very bad at times. Maybe he needs to sit until he gets in better shape, although he has been pretty good with run blocking. The bottom line is, it's all fixable.

We saw flashes of it last week. In Tennessee's first offensive drive, they moved the ball right down the field on Florida. Then Nico fumbled and he let it get to him for most of the game. The Vols did play better in the second half and Nico started having some nice little throws. Particularly in overtime. Dylan Sampson carried the team on his back and willed the Vols to victory. By the way, I love the fact that Heupel didn't want to settle for a field goal and just made Florida eat the ball when everyone knew the outcome.

On the other hand Tennessee's defense kept them in it the past two weeks. They have been elite in the red zone, although they've had their struggles between the 20's. Without this defense, the Vols would have probably been blown out two games in a row. Instead they put the Vols in a position to win both games.

So here we are. The Vols are 5-1 heading into the Third Saturday In October. Sure we would love to have that Arkansas game back but everything is still in front of the Vols. Texas is the only team in the SEC without a loss. Texas A&M is undefeated in conference play but those two will play at the end of the year. LSU is still undefeated in conference play but they still have to play Arkansas, Alabama and Texas A&M. It's unlikely they run through that without a loss. Which means the Vols probably still control their own destiny for the SEC Championship and the Playoff.

It's also worth noting that Tennessee has now started 5-1 or better three seasons in a row. That hasn't happened since 1995-1999. It's also worth noting that Tennessee didn't win any championships until the third year of that streak.

On the other sideline, Alabama has had it's own problems. Kalen DeBoer inherited the most talented roster in the country according to the 24/7 Talent Composite. Despite a lackluster game against USF, they looked the part when the jumped out to a huge lead on Georgia. Of course they blew that lead and barely held on to win. Since then they were beaten by Vanderbilt for the first time in 40 years and came within a whisker of losing to South Carolina at home last week. Now DeBoer is feeling some pressure from his fan base. It's never easy to replace a legend. In a way, Alabama's season has mirrored Tennessee's. A couple of wins that looked impressive at the time against Wisconsin and Georgia to match Tennessee's wins against North Carolina State and Oklahoma. They lost to Vandy on the road while Tennessee lost to Arkansas on the road. It should be pointed out that both Vandy and Arkansas are vastly improved from what they were expected to be. They struggled against a decent team at home next week, just like Tennessee did. And yes, I do think South Carolina and Florida are okay teams.

So were the Vols and Tide just hung over last week? Maybe. Probably. Both teams are capable of being much better. One team will get back on track this week while the other will be left with its playoff hopes on life support.

I'm old school. This will always be THE game on the schedule for me. This is a very special rivalry. It built the SEC. The Big Ten has always had Michigan/Ohio State. The Third Saturday In October is the SEC's answer to that. The two best teams historically in the best conference historically should always be a big deal. This rivalry should be regarded as one of the premier rivalries in all of sports. The streaky nature of this series works against it though. The 15 year streak the Vols ended two years ago seemed like torture. Before Saban got there though, Tennessee won something like 12 of 15 including 7 in a row from 1995-2001. Now we are seeing these so called premier rivalries be streaky as well. Before Kirby Smart got to Georgia, Florida owned Georgia just as bad as they owned Tennessee. Now Florida has only beaten him twice. Tennessee has beaten Alabama the same number of times this century that Michigan has beaten Ohio State. Texas has only won 5 of the last 15 against Oklahoma. Yet no one questions these rivalries. Another thing that works against the Third Saturday In October is that historically, Tennessee and Alabama have rarely been up at the same time. Meaning nationally relevant. It just so happens that both are currently. And this will give a new generation of college football fans a chance to appreciate this rivalry the way it deserves to be.

Bear Bryant knew how important this game was. He would let it be known that the Third Saturday In October was more important than the Iron Bowl. General Neyland knew how important this game was. I believe it was the General who was quoted "When the leaves turn color, the boys become men," referring to the the Third Saturday In October.

Unfortunately the future of this rivalry is uncertain. It's assumed that the SEC will go to 9 conference games in 2026. This would preserve the rivalry but that announcement hasn't been made yet and there's no guarantee it ever will be. A lot of programs are happy to stay at 8 conference games, which would leave only one permanent opponent for each team. Alabama would get Auburn and we would get Vandy. Hopefully they end up doing the right thing because I just can't imagine a Tennessee football schedule without Alabama on it. And for that matter, this game needs to be play ON the Third Saturday In October every single year no matter what. There were many years after the division split in 1992 when that wasn't the case.

On to the game itself. I won't throw a bunch of stats at you. I'm sure you've been exposed to plenty of them already this week. This game will come down to Tennessee's offense vs. Alabama's defense. Right now that's weakness vs. weakness. Which unit steps up and makes enough plays? I'll get to that in a second.

Alabama's offense vs. Tennessee's defense will be interesting. Tennessee's defense has been clutch all year. The amount of stops they've had in the red zone is insane. They haven't allowed more than 19 points all year. Six games in, that's real. That's not skewered stats. Losing Keenan Pili was a terrible blow, but the defense did hold after he left early in the game. Arion Carter and Jeremiah Telander have both been solid this year. The secondary will likely be tested in a way that it hasn't so far this year. The defensive line is still great but Jalen Milroe is quick enough to improvise and take a few shots down field. Ryan Williams is a freak as everyone knows by now. Alabama will make plays and they will score. But I trust the defense to make a lot of plays of its own.

Which leads be to Tennessee's offense. Josh Heupel's bread and butter is his offense. Even if the timing is still off, I think he will find the weaknesses in Alabama's defense. But I think the timing is better this week. I think the Vols found a little rhythm in the second half and overtime last week. I think that carries over to this week and I think the Vols make enough plays as Neyland Stadium forces Milroe into some mistakes. Home field advantage is huge in this one.

Tennessee (+3.5) 31

Alabama 27

In other games...

Texas (-4.5) 38

Georgia 27

Arkansas (+1.5) 27

LSU 24

Illinois (+3.5) 21

Michigan 17

Louisville (+4.5) 34

Miami 33

Indiana 28

Nebraska (+6.5) 24

Last time... 4-3(2-5 ATS) Overall Record 22-11(16-17 ATS)

Follow me on Twitter/X @Joshes_Journal

That's all I have for this week. Enjoy every drop of football. We're already halfway though the season.

Have a great Third Saturday In October everyone and stay safe. Go Vols and God Bless!