Bowling Green Game Preview
First off, let me just say that this Game Preview is dedicated to the memory of The Vol Colonel and of my mother-in-law. Both of them passed away in March and they are sorely missed.
I know a lot of people are in wait-and-see mode or they are just plain done caring about the football Vols. A lot of people tuned out anything football related when Donde Plowman and Randy Boyd had their ill-advised and damning press conference in January and they are now only tepidly tuning back in. I get it. Tennessee should have just paid the stupid buyout and avoided all of this NCAA nonsense. Danny White seemed like a great hire at the time before he endured some self-inflicted wounds. He's done a pretty good job of late though. Many people were turned off by the Josh Heupel hire. I was one of them for the first few emotional days. I had my sights set on Hugh Freeze and when UT made it impossible to hire him, I was on the Lane Train again. Once the emotions subsided and I started looking at Heupel's resume logically, I began to like what I saw more and more. I watched film of his offense. Learned his tendencies. Studied his tenure at UCF. The more I learned about him, the more I thought he had a chance to be in the right place at the right time.
College football has moved much more towards offense in recent years. Even Nick Saban made the switch to a more wide open style a few years ago. It's just where the game is. Tennessee tried to go with an offensive innovator when they hired Kiffin. He bolted after a year and the experiment failed. I have no idea what they were thinking when they hired Dooley. When they hired Butch Jones, they tried for an offensive coach again. But Botch was no innovator. His system worked with Dobbs at QB, but that's it. Then they went defensive with Pruitt at a time when offenses started to dominate the game. This was predictably a failure in hindsight. Tennessee is going with an offensive approach again with Heupel, only this time, they hired an innovator. They hired a guy with offenses that live in the top 10 in total offense and scoring. They hired a guy with a great track record of developing quarterbacks. Tennessee might have just hired the right guy at the right time. Time will tell of course, but I maintain that it's a good possibility.
The other elephant in the room is the NCAA investigation. The Supreme Court effectively emasculated the NCAA earlier in the Summer. Tennessee has the perfect get out of jail free card if they will use it. The NCAA will never win in court again. If you follow me on Twitter, you know that I've been tweeting nightly that Tennessee should not take a bowl ban. Maybe they can do a couple of scholarships for a couple of years to make it look good. Tennessee hasn't always done obvious things though. In fact, they rarely do obvious things. If you agree with me about the penalties, retweet my original post as much as possible.
Also, sign Tony's petition. Every little bit helps to make your voice heard.
https://www.change.org/p/university-of-tennessee-athletic-department-ban-the-ut-bowl-ban?recruiter=39918982&utm_source=share_petition&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=share_petition&recruited_by_id=55d879c0-4d79-0130-8e98-3c764e044e9e
I know this sounds crazy, especially since so many fans are checked out right now. But I haven't been this excited for a football season in quite a while. Think about it. We haven't seen a competent offense here since 2016. We haven't had a competent quarterback since 2016. We should have both of those this year. The schedule isn't as brutal as it has been in the past. None of the hardest games are back-to-back. This is the easiest schedule we've had in a long time. Not only that but Josh Heupel has the best resume of anyone Tennessee has hired since Johnny Majors. Phillip Fulmer was an offensive coordinator that had never been a head coach. Lane Kiffin was 5-15 as an NFL head coach with a few years at USC as a co-offensive coordinator. Derek Dooley had a 17-20 record at Louisiana Tech. Butch Jones was a mediocre 50-27 following Brian Kelly at both Central Michigan and Cincinnati. Jeremy Pruitt was a very good defensive coordinator at Florida State, Georgia and Alabama but had no head coach experience. Josh Heupel is 28-8 as a head coach with a New Year's Six bowl on his resume and a conference championship in the toughest Group of Five league. People love to say he's had diminishing returns. It's true that the record has gotten worse every year, but Cincinnati and Memphis have also been good in that league. Of his 8 losses, 7 have been by one score or less. And let's be honest, 2020 was a funky year with Covid. It counts, but last year should be taken with a grain of salt. Heupel had double digit opt outs on his team in 2020. With all that being said, let's turn the page to 2021.
I'm sure you've heard by now, but Bowling Green was awful in 2020. They didn't lead for a single minute. They never scored more than 24 points and they never got with in 25 points of the opposing team. All of their opponents scored at least 31 points. Not to mention they have had several transfers from that team. Maybe it was just the crazy Covid year. Surely they were better in 2019. They were better in 2019, but not by much. Their wins were against a 3-9 Morgan State team from the FCS, a 6-6 Toledo team and an 0-12 Akron team. They were thoroughly blown out in their nine losses. They were 3-9 in 2018 as well. This is a program that has been down for a while. They don't really do anything well. They do have a decent running back but that's about it. Scot Loeffler is entering his 3rd season as head coach and one would think he's on the hot seat.
On offense I can see Heupel trying to run his normal balanced offense, just with fewer plays than he normally would. At UCF in games like these, Heupel would jump on the team early in the first half and take his foot off the gas in the 2nd half. This is a situation with fan interest waning that he may be tempted to run the score up a bit. I think we see Joe Milton work with his receivers in live action and try to get the passing game clicking. Between Velus Jones, JaVonta Payton, Jalin Hyatt, Cedric Tillman, Walker Merrill and Jimmy Calloway, it'll be interesting to see if one of them emerges as a go to guy. At UCF, the tight end was also involved in the offense. Will Jacob Warren or Princeton Fant be reliable targets? I don't see Milton running all that much in this game. No need to take unnecessary risks. Tiyon Evans and Jabari Small have had good fall camps and I'm interested to see what they look like in this offense. This may surprise some but Heupel's system puts up some pretty good rushing numbers. We saw last year that Jabari Small has some ability. I am looking forward to seeing what Tiyon Evans can do. Tennessee should be up pretty big at halftime so I would expect Hendon Hooker and Harrison Bailey to both play in the 2nd half.
Defensively we probably won't learn much from this game unless Bowling Green puts up a lot of rushing yards. That would certainly be cause for concern. From what I've heard out of camp, there have been some defensive back that have stepped up and played well. Rodney Garner is a great defensive line coach and if Tennessee can have a good pass rush it could be a game changer for the season. Byron Young has really stepped up in camp and has been unblockable at times. Linebacker is the question mark. Juwan Mitchell and Jeremy Banks will be the two starters. If Mitchell is as good as advertised and Banks can take a step, the defense may just be okay. Depth will still be an issue obviously. If Tennessee can't get good linebacker play, they will have trouble stopping the run. If they can be serviceable, they may just have a chance at a decent season.
This is a game where we should just be able to sit back and celebrate Tennessee football. As Brian Hartman astutely pointed out, aside from Georgia State (we all know how that went), we haven't had an opening game where we were expected to smash another team since probably Austin Peay in 2013. Enjoy the game.
Tennessee(-35.5) 49
Bowling Green 6
In other games...
Wisconsin 27
Penn State(+5.5) 24
Alabama(-19.5) 45
Miami 24
Iowa 28
Indiana(+3.5) 27
Texas 34
Louisiana(+8.5) 30
Clemson(-2.5) 38
Georgia 27
UCLA(+2.5) 35
LSU 32
Ole Miss(-10.5) 48
Louisville 34
Follow me on Twitter @Joshes_Journal
Remember to tune into to the Garza Law 5th Quarter special "Up All Night" edition immediately after the game.
Celebrate Tennessee football. Remember what made you fall in love with it to begin with. I get the bitterness. We've been through a lot as a fan base since 2008. But tomorrow isn't promised. This football season could be your last. Never take it for granted. Cherish it. We only get 12 of these a year plus whatever post season we earn. In the 90's, I took beating teams like Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Auburn, Ohio State and Florida State for granted. Even as good as we were, most of those years I was left unsatisfied because we couldn't beat Florida. Appreciate what you have while you have it. You never know when it will all be gone.
The long wait is finally over. Stay safe everyone. Have a great weekend. Go Vols and God Bless!