Florida Game Preview
The Austin Peay game is a perfect example of what can happen in college football when a team isn't dialed in against a lesser opponent. Give credit where it's due. Austin Peay's coach had his team ready to play. Even so, that's no excuse for Tennessee performance last Saturday. Tennessee was looking ahead to Florida. There's no denying that. But I don't think the lightning delay is getting enough discussion in that debacle. For me personally, was tuned in and ready for kickoff. I know a lot of people don't get excited for games like that but I get excited every time the Vols take the field and I was anticipating several explosive plays. Then the worst announcers to ever call a Tennessee game announce the lighting delay right when the game was supposed to kick off. Naturally all of that excitement turned to frustration and by the time the game kicked off, I never came close to reaching the excitement level I had just a half hour earlier. Now imagine you're a player on the team. You were already out for warmups and got a glimpse of the sellout crowd. You were probably ready to have a great night against lesser competition. Maybe pad some stats. Then right before it's time to run through the T, the lightning delay hits. I can only imagine the reaction of the players being similar to mine, only probably magnified. It's hard to get that level of intensity back when you lose it. Especially when you think you're going to win easily. I think the deflating lightning delay and not being able to run through the T played a substantial factor in what happened.
As for the performance itself, the Vols were just a little off on offense. They didn't play with a sense of urgency. They weren't crisp. Joe Milton has been raked over the coals this week by a lot of people. He did make some bad throws but he also put some right on the money and they were just dropped. If you get both hands on the ball, you should catch it. I understand that Milton throws missiles and I understand that he sometimes throws the ball behind his receivers. But these are SEC receivers and they are all capable of making those catches. We've seen them do it before. There was just a lack of focus and a lack of urgency. The defense played great for the most part although they did start losing focus later in the game. By that point I think everyone was just ready for the game to be over. One bright spot from that game is Charles Campbell. He looks like he will be nearly automatic kicking field goals. That could be important as we move into conference play. Enough about Austin Peay. It's Florida week.
When people have opined about the game this week, the history of the series has inevitably been mentioned. Younger fans are well aware of it but older fans lived through the Vols being elite in the 90's only to have Florida standing between them and winning championships most years. It's hard to convey to younger fans how it was possible to be disappointed with an 11-1 record. But that one loss drove us crazy year after year. Peyton Manning lost 6 games as a starter at Tennessee. Alabama 1994, Florida 1995, Florida 1996, Memphis 1996, Florida 1997 and Nebraska in the Orange Bowl his senior year. That was it. If not for Florida, Tennessee is probably in the mix for the national championship in 1993 and plays for the title in 1995, probably 1996 and the Orange Bowl would have been for a share of the national title in 1997. That is the reason so many Vol fans hate Florida so much. It's hard to understand unless you lived through it.
Since 2005, the series has been extremely one sided. A lot has been made of the fact that Tennessee hasn't won at Florida since 2003. History is the number one factor Florida has going for it on Saturday. Almost everything else favors the Vols. But just because there's a long streak at play, doesn't mean it's unbreakable.
Alabama went from 1991-2005 between wins against Tennessee at home. That's not all. Between 1993 and 2006, Alabama was 3-11 against Tennessee including 7 in a row from 1995-2001. We all know it took 15 years to break their streak once Saban got there.
From 1990-2016, Georgia was 6-21 against Florida. Now they've won 5 of the last 6.
Georgia went from 1980-2001 between wins in Knoxville.
Ole Miss went from 1983-2021 between wins in Knoxville.
Kentucky went from 1986-2018 between wins at Florida and they have played annually the whole time. In fact, Kentucky lost 31 in a row to Florida from 1986-2018. Now they've won 3 of the last 5.
Even within the Tennessee/Florida series there have been streaks that have ended. We all know Tennessee lost 11 in a row from 1995-2015 and 5 in a row from 2017-2021. Did you know that Florida went from 1999-2005 between wins in Gainesville? Tennessee had begun to turn the tide before Urban Meyer got there. They had won 3 of the last 4 and 4 of the last 7. Tennessee went from 1971-2001 between wins in the Swamp, then won two in a row in the Swamp. Now the Vols have gone another 20 years between wins at Florida. But that doesn't mean the streak has to continue.
I think you're going to see the Vols ready to play Saturday. They will be fired up for Florida. They won't be just going through the motions. I expect Florida to be ready to play as well. After getting handled by Utah, they had to be fired up for McNeese State. McNeese State was 4-7 in the FCS last year and Florida beat them 49-7. They were dialed in because they wanted to get the taste of Utah out of their mouths. That win has given their fans some confidence and probably their players too. Now they get to see how they stack up in conference play. They will be fired up and so will their fans in a night game. This is a very important game for them. Billy Napier has yet to beat a rival as Florida's coach. He desperately needs to give his fans some hope for the future. A win against Tennessee would help him a lot.
This is also an important game for Josh Heupel. It's not a must win but it is a credibility win. Last year was a great year. Tennessee's best in over 20 years. But was it just a one off? Did Tennessee catch lightning in a bottle with Hendon Hooker and Jalin Hyatt? Was that the peak of Josh Heupel's tenure? Tennessee's rivals would certainly love that to be the case. If Josh Heupel is going to have sustained success at Tennessee, this is the kind of game he has to win. On paper, Florida isn't as good as Tennessee. It's really not close either. There's a reason the Vols are favored by around a touchdown on the road. Not just on the road, in the Swamp at night. If Tennessee wins this game, then you start looking ahead a bit. Being undefeated going into Tuscaloosa is a real possibility. That would set up an opportunity to push for the playoffs for the second straight year. That's sustained success. A loss to Florida would leave Tennessee scrambling to probably finish 9-3 at best. It would be a step back. It wouldn't mean Josh Heupel can't win big here. It would just add some doubt. I don't think anyone expected Tennessee to be as good as last year. The only question is, how much of step back do they ultimately take. But there's also the possibility that this team could be very dangerous if they can get the offense tuned up because the defense is significantly better than last year.
So how will the offense respond after last week? That's the second biggest key to the game in my mind. I'll get to the first in a bit. Thus far, Virginia and Austin Peay have played their secondaries deep to try to take away the deep shot. As a result, the running game has been carrying the team along with high percentage passes. I don't think Florida will play Tennessee that way though. I think they will try to stop the run since that's been what Tennessee has had the most success with. If the Gators play with their secondary deep, Tennessee will dink and dunk and run all over them. Their best chance is to stop Tennessee's runs and trust their secondary. I think they will also try to put a lot of pressure on Milton when he does throw. Forcing Tennessee into quick three and outs is their formula on defense. Josh Heupel said today Cooper Mays will play. Basilio and John Adams said they will believe that when they see it. I trust their sources but it is a bit odd that Heupel definitively said Mays will play if he has no intention of playing him. I would expect him to be more cryptic and deflect to the day of the game. If Cooper Mays plays and he's not terribly rusty, the Vols should be able to protect Milton. Even if he don't play, I think the offensive line will still be effective enough to give the Vols opportunities. If Florida plays Tennessee how I think they will, the deep passes will be there. If Milton can connect on a few of them, Tennessee should take care of business. If he can't, this could end up being an ugly game. Keep an eye on the tight ends. They have made a few plays this year but we haven't seen them targeted too many times. There's a potential for some mismatches with McCallan Castles and Jacob Warren and I think this is a facet of the offense Heupel has been holding back so far. Remember last year, Princeton Fant made some spectacular plays.
So what's the biggest key to the game? Tennessee's pass rush and their front seven. These units have been significantly improved over last year. Florida is a run heavy offense and shortening the game is a pretty big part of their path to victory. Mertz has been pretty good decent passing so far. He put up a lot of yards against Utah but only one touchdown and he threw an interception. Tennessee's defensive game plan will mirror Florida's I think. Stop the run and pressure Mertz. I think the Vols will slow down their run enough to force Mertz into passing situations. Tennessee is tied with Nebraska for most sacks in the country at 11 and for the most part they've been getting consistent pressure with only 4 rushers. Florida has given up 5 sacks on the year. I think Tennessee's defense proves it's for real Saturday.
The Austin Peay game had me feeling very worried about this game. I still am pretty worried. I'm not immune to Battered Vol Syndrome. But the fact of the matter is, Tennessee just has the better team. If they play their game and execute, they should win. Streaks were made to be broken and misery exists to give way to joy.
Tennessee (-6.5) 31
Florida 17
In other games...
Georgia 38
South Carolina (+27.5) 13
LSU (-9.5) 34
Mississippi State 20
Washington (-17) 52
Michigan State 24
West Virginia (-2.5) 28
Pitt 24
Arkansas (-8.5) 35
BYU 23
Last week 4-2(2-4 ATS) Overall Record 7-5 (5-7 ATS)
As always, I appreciate everyone who took the time to read this. I really appreciate you letting me be a part of your pregame.
Follow me on Twitter/X @Joshes_Journal
If you like what you read and feel led to do so, you can hit the tip jar on my Twitter/X account or on CashApp $OrangeSwarm182
This is a big weekend and a big game. Stock up on your favorite alcoholic beverage just in case (Please Drink Responsibly) and enjoy what will probably be Tennessee's last trip to the Swamp as a yearly rival. Cherish every second of football. We're already 1/6th of the way through the season. Have a great weekend everyone and please stay safe. Go Vols and God Bless!