Georgia Game Preview

It all comes down to this. If the Vols win this game, they will likely punch their ticket not only to the playoff, but to the SEC Championship Game as well. When everyone was talking about just getting into the playoff and hopefully hosting before the season began, I would always bristle at that. My goal for UT has always been to win the SEC and get a first round bye. Hosting a playoff game is nice, but I want to win a national championship. That's always the ultimate goal. That's always what you strive for when you are a program of Tennessee's pedigree. Getting a first round bye increases your odds of winning a national championship. That's the bottom line.

In an added bonus, winning this game would also eliminate Georgia from the playoff. Who wouldn't have loved this opportunity before the season started? And now we are here and it's a reality.

Of course the path we took to get here hasn't been what anyone expected. And of course we go into the game with injury questions regarding our quarterback and best deep threat wide receiver. It's the most Tennessee thing ever.

In recent weeks, the defense has looked a little vulnerable against the run while the offense seems to have started clicking a little bit, although they still have trouble finishing drives. But they have been moving the ball pretty well lately. Max Gilbert seems to have gotten his swing back and it looks like we've found a weapon with Boo Carter returning kicks.

Meanwhile Georgia hasn't been the same team this year that we've seen over the past few years. Even in their dominating win over Texas their offense still struggled. They just took advantage of short fields. Now they are licking their wounds after getting curb stomped at Ole Miss.

Conventional wisdom would say that a Georgia team coming off a loss and facing elimination will come out on fire at a home night game. Conventional wisdom also suggested that they would have circled Ole Miss last week after so many pundits picking against them. Clearly that didn't happen.

Georgia could very well be chomping at the bit ready to get that bad taste out of their mouth. They could also be starting to doubt themselves after getting blown out by a team that they obliterated last year. After their first loss to someone not named Alabama in four years. This is a different year and Georgia doesn't match up with this Tennessee team nearly as well as they have in the past. Mainly because of Tennessee's defense and pass rush.

I'm going to operate under the assumption that Nico will end up starting. From the last info I've gathered as of this writing, he seems to be trending to start. I'm also going to assume that Dante Thornton will not play.I would expect Georgia's defense to play great regardless of anything else. Tennessee absolutely must take care of the football. They may be able to absorb one turnover but ideally to have a chance they need to play clean. The other part of this is the stupid penalties. This is probably a big ask but they can't afford many drive killing penalties in this game. I would expect Georgia to try to make Dylan Sampson a non factor. That means Nico will need to make plays and be accurate. If he has some success passing that should open things up for Sampson. The Vols shouldn't need a ton of points in this game but they will need at least 3 or 4 good drives.

Tennessee's defense can really dictate this game if they play up to their ability. Georgia hasn't been great running the ball all year. The Vols should be able to keep it in check without doing anything crazy. It'll be up to Carson Beck to make plays. Last week Ole Miss sacked him several times without even blitzing. He has been throwing tons of interceptions and has also put the ball on the ground a few times. If Tennessee's pass rush is on point in this game, they should be able to force him into some mistakes. This is a money game for a lot of players. James Pearce could really help his draft stock with a good game Saturday night. So could a lot of players in Tennessee's front seven. Tennessee's secondary could have a nice night as well if they get Beck rattled. I wouldn't be surprised if Will Brooks came up with another huge interception.

Tennessee hasn't beaten Georgia since the Hail Mary from Dobbs to Jennings in 2016. None of the games since then have really been close. Tennessee hasn't been to the SEC Championship Game since 2007. Tennessee hasn't won the SEC since 1998. They are going into a hostile environment against one of the most talented teams in the country that has their backs against the wall. The odds are stacked against Tennessee. But I just keep coming back to this. We are due. Two years ago I used a variation of this line in my previews and two long streaks fell during those games. Nothing lasts forever, even cold November rain.

Tennessee (+10.5) 23

Georgia 17

In other games...

Texas 38

Arkansas (+12.5) 31

Florida (+3.5) 31

LSU 28

South Carolina (-13.5) 28

Missouri 14

BYU (-2.5) 34

Kansas 27

USC 27

Nebraska (+8.5) 24

Last week 4-2(4-2 ATS) Overall Record 34-18(24-28 ATS)

Only 3 regular season games left. Don't take them for granted. Especially as the playoff race takes shape.

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That's all I have for this week. As always I truly appreciate everyone that takes the time to read this. Thank you.

Have a great weekend everyone and stay safe. Go Vols and God Bless!