Kentucky Game Preview
Tennessee stood toe to toe with Alabama for three quarters before they finally ran out of gas. They limped into the bye week with a 4-4 record that was a surprise to many. With an extra week of rest, Tennessee is now the healthiest they have been since the Bowling Green game.
Before I get to the game, news broke earlier today(Thursday) that Tennessee had completed its investigation into Jeremy Pruitt's idiocy and decided that they weren't going to impose a bowl ban. This is great news. The prevailing thought seems to be (kayfabe anyway) that the Vols will eventually impose some scholarship reductions and recruiting restrictions. The fact that they didn't impose a bowl ban leads me to believe that they aren't planning an Earth shattering number of sanctions. It doesn't seem to be as bad as people had feared. Now I know a lot of people are worried because of what happened to Oklahoma State and I understand that, but there are some other dynamics at play that work in Tennessee's favor here. For one, Oklahoma State basketball isn't even close to being as big of a brand as Tennessee football. In a way, Oklahoma State is paying for the sins of Arizona, Kansas and Will Wade. That's the MO of the NCAA. Punish a smaller brand and protect the bigger brands. The bigger brands are worth a lot of money and damaging them severely isn't in the interests of money hungry bureaucrats. Especially money hungry bureaucrats who are in danger of not existing in major college sports for much longer. More on that in a second. I'll just refer everyone back to before the 2009 season. The NCAA punished Alabama for the text book scandal by stripping 21 wins from its record books. No big deal, right? Well, between 1993 and 2007, Alabama found itself in NCAA trouble on three separate occasions. A repeat offender to say the least. There was talk of the Death Penalty. In the end, Alabama got off light because they are a huge brand with a huge fanbase. This will keep Tennessee from the worst of punishment. That and the fact that Tennessee has never really had NCAA trouble in football before this. And the fact that they got rid of everyone involved in the allegations.
But here's what Tennessee knows and is probably trying to take advantage of. The NCAA will meet soon to have a constitutional convention of sorts where they try to figure out what their role is going to be in a post NIL world. After the Supreme Court voted unanimously against the NCAA back in the Summer, it's very likely that their role in major college sports is going to be greatly diminished. Tennessee is probably going to run out the clock on the old NCAA and see what the new NCAA is going to look like before any self-imposed punishments are announced. In the meantime, it's entirely possible that the NCAA will make a mistake in some form or fashion that will hamper its ability to make a judgment. See the most recent Miami case.
So the NCAA stuff is still out there. It's not over. But try not to worry about it for now. Chances are, it won't be nearly as bad as you're expecting. As long as Tennessee plays its cards right. I realize that's asking a lot from that administration, but even they should be able to navigate this.
The Vols will travel to Lexington Saturday night to take on a Kentucky team that started 6-0, even if they had to win ugly a few times to do it. After getting humbled by Georgia, they had a bye week before facing Mississippi State and blowing a 10 point lead. Kentucky has a pretty good defense and a pretty bad offense. Their rushing game poses a bit of a threat that is often negated by turnovers. The Cats are dead last in the FBS in turnover margin. Kentucky opened as a 3 or 4 point favorite and the line was quickly bet down to a pick em to -1 Kentucky in various books.
The key to this game will be how effective Tennessee's offense is against Kentucky's defense. If the Vols can get off to a fast start, it will be hard for the Wildcats to come back with their struggles on offense. I think a healthy Tennessee team getting some players back on the lines back and getting a healthy Tiyon Evans back will be hard for Kentucky to handle. With the week off I think Tennessee will look crisp and will move the ball well. Evans will get some good yardage and Hendon Hooker will hit some plays deep. Kentucky will probably try to stop the run but Tennessee has enough in the passing game to make them pay and soften them up.
Defensively, Tennessee will probably try to stop the run and if they are successful, it will be a long night for Kentucky. The Cats haven't shown the ability to consistently be successful in the passing game. Even if they do make some plays, I just don't think they will be able to keep up with Tennessee's offense. Especially since Kentucky is likely to turn the ball over at least once.
It will be chilly Saturday night. I would be lying if I didn't say I was little concerned about it affecting Hendon Hooker. It's on the road. Kroger Field isn't a huge stadium but they got pretty loud against Florida. I think in the end, Tennessee just has too much fire power.
Tennessee(+0.5) 34
Kentucky 24
In other games...
Auburn(+4.5) 31
Texas A&M 28
Alabama 51
LSU(+29.5) 24
Wake Forest(+2.5) 34
North Carolina 28
Ole Miss 42
Liberty(+8.5) 38
Arkansas(-4.5) 32
Mississippi State 23
Last Week 4-1(2-3 ATS) Overall Record 26-12(23-15 ATS)
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That's all I have for this week. As always, I appreciate everyone who takes the time to read this. Cherish every football game. There are only 3 more left in the regular season after Saturday.
Have a great football weekend everyone. Stay safe. Go Vols and God Bless!