North Carolina State Game Preview
Tennessee didn't break a sweat as they disposed of Chattanooga like they were supposed to. The country will be watching the Vols next game in primetime on ABC as they take on North Carolina State in Charlotte in the annual Duke's Mayo Classic.
As Tony has been saying all summer, you really can't take much away from playing FCS teams unless you struggle with them. But I do have an observation on the Chattanooga game that I think is fair. Yes, Tennessee usually dominates in these games. They did struggle with Austin Peay last year but that's the exception, not the rule. But the level in which they dominated Chattanooga was a notch above what they usually do in those games. Let's just use Chattanooga as an example. Saturday was the third time in the modern era that the Vols have played Chattanooga. The previous two meetings weren't nearly this one sided. Tennessee beat them 45-0 in 2019 and 45-10 in 2014. In 2022, Tennessee blasted UT Martin 65-24. A skull dragging to be sure but not to the level of 69-3 and racking up the third most yards in a single game in program history. In 2021 Tennessee hammered Tennessee Tech 56-0. Again, a severe beating but it still falls well short of the dominance UT put on display last weekend. Consider also that Tennessee played over 90 players against Chattanooga and most of the starters didn't play much if at all in the 2nd half. Even so, the Vols still put up 24 points in the 2nd half and the defense held up well after they started playing walk ons. That tells me that the depth of the roster has vastly improved. Maybe you can't take much away from that game, but the level of dominance from start to finish has to be considered.
While Tennessee was taking care of business, their opponents this weekend struggled with Western Carolina. The Wolfpack trailed for much of the game before pulling away in the 4th quarter. They did end up with over 500 yards of offense and 204 rushing. For the most part, this was Western Carolina running out of gas against a team with a lot more depth and talent. For most of the game, North Carolina State got pushed around on both lines of scrimmage. Western Carolina averaged over 6 yards per carry while the Wolfpack gave up 9 tackles for loss. Grayson McCall ended up with a nice stat line save for an interception but for a lot of the game he looked shaky. Kevin Concepcion had a great game and was a big reason the Wolfpack pulled away. Jordan Waters also had a nice game as he ran for 124 yards and 2 touchdowns. Yes, you can't take a lot away from FCS games but it's certainly not a good sign when you get pushed around by an FCS team. They better be dialed in if they hope to block Tennessee's defensive line.
All week everyone except NC State fans have thought Tennessee was going to put it on the Wolfpack. Respected experts and knowledgeable football people have been singing the praises of Nico Iamaleava. The Vegas betting line has jumped 5 points in Tennessee's favor. This has led some Vol fans to question if we are getting set up for a crotch shot for the ages. A lot of times when everyone things a certain thing is going to happen in college football, it doesn't go that way. A lot of times this is what separates the pros from the Joes. But sometimes an outcome seems so obvious that everyone picks up on it. You heard some sharps play Clemson and the points against Georgia while most people thought Clemson would get blown out. Sometimes going against popular perception pays off and sometimes it doesn't. The truth is, people make up their minds about what a team will be going into a season before the teams have even had a chance to play together and form a chemistry. One game into the season, we just don't know much about either team. It gets real Saturday night.
I think this could be a game where the helmet communication can be very beneficial for Tennessee. NC State runs a 3-3-5 and Heupel has had problems with that defense as Matt Dixon has pointed out. They will do some things to try to confuse Nico but their defense can and will be exploited by the right play calling. Early on Tennessee might try to keep the game in front of them by limiting risk for Nico. I would think Tennessee will run to set up the pass in this game. Dylan Sampson could break some long runs early and if that happens it'll be on. I would expect Ethan Davis to have a nice game before Tennessee unleashes the downfield attack. Once they have NC State on their heels Heupel will have his way with them.
North Carolina State's path to victory is to keep Tennessee's offense off the field. McCall has to have a great game and Concepcion will have to break some big plays. I do think Tennessee's secondary will get tested some in this game. We will see if they really are as bad as a lot of people think. The problem the Wolfpack is going to have is going to be trying to run against Tennessee's defensive line. They will have to have at least some success on the ground to have a chance. I don't think they will have much success on the ground. And I don't think McCall is going to have much time to throw the ball. I think Tennessee has an elite defensive line and it will be on display in this game.
Last week, the experts became aware of how good Nico Iamaleava is. This week, the whole country will. The Vols roll in Nico's introduction to the Heisman race.
Tennessee (-9.5) 45
North Carolina State 21
In other games...
Texas 31
Michigan (+7.5) 27
Iowa 21
Iowa State (+3) 20
Oklahoma State 41
Arkansas (+7.5) 35
Auburn (-13.5) 42
Cal 20
Kentucky (-8.5) 31
South Carolina 17
Nebraska 38
Colorado (+7.5) 34
Last week... 4-3(4-3 ATS)
Some parting thoughts...
Florida State could be tracking for a losing season as long as they keep throwing ACC Gitmo out there.
USC is a team to watch this year. It was very unlikely Lincoln Riley would have two bad seasons in a row.
USCjr is awful. They might be lucky to win 5 games. The more data we get, the more likely it seems that Connor Stallions gave Frankie Jr our signs in 2022. It's almost undeniable at this point.
Miami is for real and Cam Ward will have a nice year. The Canes have to be considered ACC front runners at this point.
Clemson is about where Tennessee was in 2005. Their run is over and they aren't getting the mojo back as long as Dabo refuses to adapt.
Oregon could be on fraud alert. It's to early to make that call just yet but they certainly don't seem like a top 5 team.
That was a very impressive win by Vandy over a Virginia Tech team I thought was going to be pretty good. A bowl might not be out of the question for little brother.
That's all I have for this week. Follow me on Twitter/X @Joshes_Journal
Have a great weekend and enjoy another precious Saturday of college football. We don't get nearly enough of them. Stay safe everyone. Go Vols and God Bless!