South Carolina Game Preview
Time for a reset. This Tennessee offense clearly isn't as good as last year's offense. This is not a surprise at all for most people who follow things closely. This is apparently a big surprise for a lot of people who have decided to melt down and retreat into their Battered Vol Syndrome in the wake of the Florida loss. That loss was atrocious. Everything about that night was ignorant. There's no crime in that game hurting and still being angry about it. But it's also time to move on. It sucks that Tennessee lost to Florida but there's nothing anyone can do about it until next year. There are still 8 regular season games to play in 2023 and the Vols still have plenty to play for.
Tennessee cruised to a 45-14 win over a team they were favored to beat by 3 touchdowns. Despite a bad start to the 3rd quarter, particularly on defense, the Vols won the game by 31 points. Yet the post game discussion on the Garza Law Fifth Quarter Fan Reaction sounded more like the Georgia State postgame from 2019 than a game where the Vols easily covered a pretty big spread. A lot of fans were ready to wave the white flag and lay down for South Carolina. A game that will be played at night in Neyland Stadium with a huge revenge factor in the front of everyone's mind. They were ready to bow down to a team that is 3-18 all time in Knoxville with their only 3 wins coming against teams that finished 5-6, 5-7 and 4-8. This meltdown has been baffling to watch.
How quickly some forgot that it was only 4 years ago when Tennessee lost to Georgia State and BYU to start the season 0-2. It was only 3 years ago that Tennessee finished 3-7 and lost 6 consecutive games in the process. It was less than 3 years ago when a third of the team hit the transfer portal. It was less than 3 years ago when the college football world assumed Tennessee wouldn't even make a bowl for at least 5 years.
Yeah, Tennessee isn't as good in 2023 as they were in 2022. They are still a hell of a lot better than pretty much every other year from 2008-2020. The 2015 and 2016 teams were talented, but their biggest weakness was their coach. He managed to turn two 10 plus win teams into 4 loss teams. In 2023, Tennessee has a coach that can do more with less. The offense has still managed to put up 35 points a game and is one of the best rushing teams in the country. And they've done this without Cooper Mays, who is crucial to Tennessee's tempo. This seems to be the first week that it's actually been possible for him to come back by the way.
People have also been very down on the defense. The defense has played about 3, maybe 4 bad quarters of football out of 16. The rest of the time they have been very solid. Granted, they haven't faced the best competition, but they still rank fairly high in a lot of categories and a lot of the teams ahead of them haven't really played tough schedules either. They more or less shut Virginia down. Austin Peay had a few sustained drives and a big play off of a busted coverage but they were also going for every 4th down and pulling every trick play in existence out of their playbook. Florida had their way in the first half. In the second half, Tennessee stonewalled them. And yes, I'm sure Florida was trying to run out the clock. I doubt they were trying to have the several 3 and outs Tennessee forced though. The defense gave Tennessee a chance against Florida. The offense just couldn't capitalize in the comeback effort. UTSA was completely shut down in the first half. They came out after halftime and had two long drives that resulted in touchdowns. After that though, the defense was stout again. Tennessee's defense only gives up 17 points per game. Some will probably be surprised to hear that. They are also 2nd in the country with 16 sacks. They are also 2nd in the country with 39 tackles for loss. People seem to only remember the 4 bad quarters and not the 12 solid ones.
Tennessee has a solid team. They aren't great like last year. At least not yet. But they certainly aren't awful. We've seen awful here and it wasn't that long ago. I don't want to tell anyone how to be a fan, but it would be a shame to not enjoy a season simply because it's a transition year. No one is promised tomorrow. This could be your last football season. Enjoy it. Especially when your team doesn't suck. If you're going to the game, be loud and chase that vengeance. Tennessee could still end up having a really good year. The Playoff doesn't seem likely but the Peach, Cotton or Fiesta Bowls wouldn't be a bad end to the season. There's still plenty to play for.
I'm sure by now everyone has received an extensive breakdown of this game. South Carolina's run defense is okay. Their pass defense is awful though. They rank 126th in the country and give up 317 yards a game. There will be opportunities to throw the ball. Knowing that Tennessee's run game is its strength, I would think South Carolina will try to take that away and get pressure on Milton. If Cooper Mays comes back as some are expecting, they should be able to protect him. If he's not back I think Heupel will try to throw a lot of quick, high percentage passes. It doesn't sound like Jalin Wright will play so Jabari Small will probably get a lot of carries and Dylan Sampson could have a breakout game. Especially if the Vols can get something going through the air.
Spencer Rattler is probably the best quarterback in the SEC right now. Him and Xavier Legette are pretty much carrying the Gamecocks on their shoulders. Their running game is almost nonexistent. It ranks 126th at 76 yards per game. South Carolina's offensive line has also given up a lot of sacks. They have given up 17, which ranks 125th. That would seem to be a glaring weakness when going up against the defense with the 2nd most sacks in the country. It's very possible that Tennessee will get consistent pressure bringing only 4. If that's the case, Spencer Rattler's jersey is going to have a lot of grass stains on it at the end of the night.
I know a lot of people were surprised at the line. I understand if you just go by the eye test but this is a really good matchup for Tennessee. South Carolina can make it a game if they can give Rattler time to throw. It seems like a tall order that they will be able to do it enough though. The crowd at Neyland will do what it always does at night and the Vols will feed off that energy.
Tennessee (-11.5) 38
South Carolina 20
In other games...
Utah (+3.5) 28
Oregon State 27
Florida (+1.5) 27
Kentucky 20
Georgia 31
Auburn (+14.5) 19
Ole Miss (+2.5) 34
LSU 31
Notre Dame 23
Duke (+5.5) 20
Last Week... 4-2(2-3-1 ATS) Overall Record... 15-9(11-12-1 ATS)
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That's it for this week. As always, I appreciate everyone who takes the time to read this. Thank you for making these words a part of your pregame. Cherish every fall Saturday. There are only 8 regular season games left.
Stay safe everyone. Have a great weekend and be LOUD if you're going to the game. Go Vols and God Bless!