Arkansas Game Preview

I know everyone wanted a vintage Josh Heupel offensive explosion at Oklahoma but the old school fan in me loved the way that game was managed. This is the best defense Tennessee has had since at least 2005 and maybe even before that. No need to expose your young QB to a very good Oklahoma defense when you don't have to. It's very possible Oklahoma's defense will be the best Tennessee plays all year. And the Vols still made some great plays on it. That post to Dante Thornton was about as pretty as they come. The timing was absolutely perfect. After a bye week, the Vols are as healthy as ever and ready to get back at it.

For the fourth game in a row the Vols will once again be playing in prime time. For the 3rd time out of 6 weeks, the Vols will be featured in the primetime ABC game. Across the sidelines will be the Arkansas Razorbacks, who have been a thorn in the Vols side since they came into the SEC in 1992. Tuesday Jay laid out the reasons very well earlier in the week but I will recap with my own perspective.

Tennessee began the year 5-0 in 1992. They were in a great position to win the first ever SEC East Title and play for the championship in Birmingham. They had already beaten Florida and Georgia and didn't have a strong schedule the rest of the way outside of the Third Saturday in October. Johnny Majors was sidelined for the first part of the season after heart surgery and Phillip Fulmer was the interim coach who had led to the Vols to big wins over Georgia and Florida. When Majors returned in the 4th game against Cincinnati it was clear that his style was much more conservative that Fulmer. The offensive numbers went down but the Vols still beat the Bearcats 40-0 and LSU in the next game 20-0. Everything was still in front of them when Arkansas came to Neyland Stadium. The Hogs edged the Vols 25-24 and the native began to get restless with King Johnny. Personally I couldn't believe the Vols lost that game. Arkansas had lost to the Citadel in week one and were coming off 3 straight losses to Alabama, Memphis State and Georgia. 11 year old Josh saw the Vols lose in an upset that didn't involve Alabama for the first time. I won't go into detail, but suffice to say I didn't handle it well.

In 1999, Tennessee was sitting at 7-1 and number 2 in the BCS rankings despite Virginia Tech being undefeated. A rematch with Florida State for the national championship seemed probable as the Vols didn't have a tough schedule remaining. Tennessee had not lost in the regular season to a team not named Florida since the Memphis upset in 1996. It was a foregone conclusion that Tennessee was going to win out to end the regular season. Until Arkansas got their revenge for the fumble in 1998. Proving that the football gods have a sense of humor, the game ended with the score of 28-24. The same exact score from the year before, only reversed.

In 2001 the Vols won a very wet and sloppy game in Fayetteville 13-3. Three days before 9/11. That was the last time Tennessee won at Arkansas.

The Vols and Hogs played annually from 1992-2002 and the 2002 game was one to remember. The 6 OT thriller that ended with a strike from Casey Clausen to Jason Witten. That 2002 team was so damn frustrating but that's another story for another day.

In 2006 Tennessee went to Arkansas with a 7-2 record. They had lost the week before to LSU without Erik Ainge who was hurt against South Carolina. Ainge would miss the Arkansas game as well as Darren McFadden ran wild in the Wild Hog. The Hogs gave birth to the Wildcat fad that lasted for several years in college football and even made its way to the NFL. First year Arkansas OC and former high school coach Gus Malzahn gets the credit for that.

The Vols would return the favor the next year with a 34-14 win in Knoxville. That was the last time the Vols beat the Hogs.

There have been three meetings since the last win in 2007. In 2011 the Vols went to Arkansas and were smashed 49-7. This is the game everyone remembers for the Joe Adams punt return TD where seemingly every Vol on the field had a chance at the tackle and couldn't bring him down. Known clown Derek Dooley oversaw that disaster. In the aftermath, Tyler Bray said he didn't even watch the film it was so bad.

In 2015 Arkansas came to Knoxville the week after Josh Dobbs left it all on the field against Florida. He wasn't himself but despite that Tennessee jumped out to a 14-0 lead. Arkansas eventually tied the game at 17 before halftime before grinding out a 24-20 win in the second half. This was another loss that was hard to take. An inexplicable Butch Jones special if you will.

The last meeting with the Hogs came in the 2020 Covid season. Before the season, this game looked like a surefire Tennessee win. Tennessee ended 2019 with a 6 game win streak and seemed poised to be a decent team in 2020. Arkansas was breaking in a new coach in Sam Pittman after Chad Morris nearly killed their program. Tennessee ended up being a dumpster fire that year and Pittman looked like a pretty decent coach as he had Arkansas competitive with Texas A&M and Auburn and had knocked off Mississippi State and Ole Miss. The Hogs won an ugly game 24-13.

For those keeping score, Tennessee hasn't won at Arkansas since 2001 and hasn't beaten the Hogs since 2007. Heupel has snapped several negative streaks since he took over in 2021. This is one that he absolutely must snap if the Vols want to maintain their trajectory as a program.

One of the few concerns that have followed Josh Heupel into his 4th season is the trend of having at least one baffling road loss per year. In 2021, the Florida game was one of those games. Although to be fair, the team was still trying to find its identity with a first year coach at the time. They would find it the next week at Missouri. In 2022, the Vols kinda no showed at Georgia, although there probably wasn't much they could have done against a fired up Georgia team and the hostile crowd that Erik Ainge exacerbated. Two weeks later was the infamous South Carolina debacle. Although doubt has been cast on this performance in the wake of the Connor Stallions scandal. In 2023, again the Vols lost to a bad Florida team on the road. Cooper Mays being out for that game was a big reason but this game fits the bill nonetheless. And the last road dud was the Missouri game. That was a solid Missouri team and the Vols just weren't going to stay in that game with Joe Milton at QB. Still, the game shouldn't have been that much of a blowout.

This Arkansas game is really Tennessee's last chance for a road dud in 2024. After this game, the only road games left are Georgia and Vanderbilt. Winning in Athens is going to be tough for anyone. As far as Vandy, that will basically be a home game in Neyland West.

That brings us to Saturday night. Arkansas' defense has been okay this year. They are decent against the run and vulnerable against the pass. Their offense is pretty damn good. Green is dangerous on the run and their running backs are really good as well. The Hogs could be 5-0. They had chances to beat Oklahoma State and Texas A&M. Hanging tough with Oklahoma State seemed impressive at the time but the Cowboys have proved to be a shaky team. Texas A&M has been decent this year but Arkansas always plays them close and always loses. Tennessee will by far the best offense and the best defense Arkansas has faced this year.

I expect a fired up crowd and a fired up Arkansas team in this game. Similar to the Oklahoma game. I think Tennessee's offense will have a lot more success early though. There will be plays to be made on Arkansas' secondary. This is a likely spot for Tennessee's passing game to break out, as Watson Brown said earlier in the week. That should open the door for Tennessee's run game to grind down their defense late in the game. I think Nico will have a huge game and I think a receiver or two will emerge as deep threats. Dante Thornton is a good bet to be one of them. I'm hoping to see Brazzell have a big game as well. I would expect Dylan Sampson to have a nice stat line by the end of the night too.

Arkansas is capable of testing Tennessee's secondary. Especially if Green has time to run around. He is a capable threat with his legs and he will be a good test for the Vols' front 7. But at the end of the day, I think he's going to run into the same problems that every other quarterback Tennessee has faced has. Tennessee's defensive line is going to wear their offensive line down. Arkansas has a couple of tight ends hurt, which is going to put even more strain on their already weak offensive line. Keenan Pili and Arian Carter could make some big plays as Green gets flushed from the pocket. I don't think we leave this game doubting Tennessee's defense. And it's possible Green doesn't have enough time to test Tennessee's secondary. There's a realistic chance that doesn't happen until the Third Saturday in October. The Vols solidify their top 5 ranking as another negative streak falls in Fayetteville.

Tennessee (-13.5) 42

Arkansas 13

In other games...

Texas A&M (-2.5) 27

Missouri 23

Michigan (+1.5) 24

Washington 21

Ole Miss 31

South Carolina (+9.5) 28

UCF (-2.5) 35

Florida 31

Georgia 31

Auburn (+22.5) 23

Last time... 4-2(3-3 ATS) Overall Record... 18-8(14-12 ATS)

That's all for this week. Follow me on Twitter/X @Joshes_Journal

Have a great weekend everyone. Stay safe and enjoy the greatest sport on Earth. Go Vols and God Bless!